Rumor (Taleban source) has it that at last Osama Bin Laden, has left Afghanistan and that Mula Omar, the self-proclaimed Amirul Momeneen of Afghanistan, has also handed over his leadership of Taleban to two of his commanders and has either left the city of Kandahar or is on the verge of doing so. He is supposed to leave Kandahar for the mountainous region of Uruzgan and future guerilla warfare.

So, the Taleban have left Mazare Sharif and Kabul and have either left, or have been driven out of most of the rest of Afghanistan in the course of just a few days. Foreign elements fighting on the side of Taleban, namely, Pakistanis, Arabs and others,

Number around 3 to 5 thousand armed men, or more, are still fighting in the Kunduz area. These are the really unwanted elements that must be driven out of the country. Afghan sources outside think the main reason for Taleban vacating Kabul, in advance of the forces of Northern Alliance entering Kabul with the tacit agreement of the United States forces, was that Pakistan ordered it army units and other servicemen, to withdraw.

If they had not vacated, the ensuing fighting would have resulted in some Pakistanis getting killed and maybe some of them getting captured and the truth that Pakistan was involved in Afghanistan all the time Taleban were in the picture, would be exposed.

The speedy entry of the Northern Alliance forces into Kabul, seems like it was unfore-seen by the United States. The media had it that the US would initially break down the Taleban front north of Kabul. The Alliance forces were to then advance and surround the city but not enter or take control. But once the Taleban left the capital without a fight, the Alliance immediately filled the vacuum.

The citizens of Kabul rejoiced when they found they can, once again, go freely about in their city. Barbers had their day. Some even joked if there were a market for human wool for the all beards that began to disappear from thousands and thousands of faces almost immediately. The sound of music filled the city, a sound that the Taleban had banned for almost five years. These were to happen as soon as the Taleban were out. Northern Alliance had nothing to do with it.

But there they are now. They have even voiced their displeasure at the entrance of the British army units in Bagram, saying that the Americans did not get their permission first. They have also openly stated that they do not want the United Nations to arrange for a meeting outside Afghanistan with Afghan leaders, including them, and all other sectors of Afghan population, for the formation of a broad-based government. They demand that they would organize such a meeting in Kabul and institute the basis for an emergency Loya Jirga. And, to top it all, this morning the media showed that Rabbani, the exiled president of Afghanistan, the 2nd president of the Mujahedeen to rule in Afghanistan for only six months, entered Kabul and was received by members of the Jameeat-i- Islami. He had remained as such for four years and his major accomplishment -- or lack thereof-- was the destruction of the beautiful city of Kabul as a result of feuds that emerged between his Prime Minister, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, of the Hezbe Islami and Defense Minister Masood. And it was Gulbuddin who fired more than six thousand bombs into Kabul in less than a week and left it in shambles. He is still considered President by the United Nations despite his five years in exile, and in spite of the fact that when he did rule, there was considerable dissatisfaction among the various sectors of the population about his rule. I do not know of any positive deed during his rule for the good of the country.

Putin has already sent a Russian delegation to Kabul and is getting ready to reopen the Russian Embassy there. Iran has also sent a delegation to Kabul in recognition of the government to be set up by the Alliance. The two countries have been in contact with the Alliance all through the past five years of Taleban rule in Afghanistan. Both governments have assisted the Alliance with armament and military supplies and more. They have a stake in the future government of Afghanistan. Not to be left behind, Pakistan, too, has placed the machinery in motion together the Pushtoon elements in the eastern and southern Afghanistan under the name of Islamic Jihad to create a body opposed to the Alliance. They are in hot pursuit of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Mawlawi Khalis of the two factions of Hezbe Islami and claim that they are well armed and ready to take up positions against the Alliance. Their claim: An expanded Pakistani Party by the name of Pukhtoonkhwa Awami Party which they aspire all Pukhtoons (Pashtoons or Pushtoons) to join some day. This is, and has been, the dream of Pakistan Governments over the last two decades. They want the Pukhtoons on the Afghanistan side of the border to join their brethren on the Pakistan side. That was also a part of the demand of the Afghan governments from Britain especially since 1947. The arbitrary Durand Line of the 1893 had unilaterally and forcefully cut off Afghanistan from the British India in the midst of the Pukhtoon tribes all along the eastern and southern borders of Afghanistan. The Loya Jirgas of Afghanistan had declared that border null and void and wanted the Pukhtoons of the other side to be given a choice of either

a) asking and get independence in 1947 or soon thereafter,

b) expressing a desire to join Afghanistan, or

c) voting to join Pakistan.

None of these points materialized in the last half of the twentieth century. And now Pakistan wants to somehow expand its territory to the north in much the same way that the British wanted in their hay day in India.

Thus it is that the United States is left in a quandary.

What should or can the United States do, under the circumstances? The broad-based government that the Afghan leaders, and the US both wanted to establish soon after the defeat of Taleban, did not come about in time. The Alliance--which is nothing but some of the Tajik population and a section of the Uzbeks of northern Afghanistan, both minorities-- is now well entrenched in Kabul. If they refuse to agree with the US views, what is it that Americans can do toward the creation of a government acceptable by all? In Mazar, already the Hazaras and the Uzbeks are at each other, as the Hazaras want a mass movement there from their abodes in the heart of Afghanistan. Herat now has its own leader, Ismael Khan, who wants to avenge his defeat in the hands of Taleban by attacking and taking Kandahar. Would the US enter the melee as peacemaker or just remain a silent observer? The Pakistani interference in the Kunar and Nangarhar provinces may bring about Gulbuddin and those in his clique into the picture. What would or could the US do if fighting flares up again between him and the Rabbani followers?

Could it be that the US would fall back and leave Afghanistan to go back through a long period of civil wars and anarchy? Did the US go into Afghanistan to be instrumental in dismantling what was still standing in the infrastructure of that devastated land, destroy the Taleban, bring back the Rabbani regime and leave Afghanistan in a worse shape than it was on October seventh? Will the US insist, once for all, that there must come about a regime recognized by all Afghans and see to it that such a fine deed is accomplished before it leaves Afghanistan? Will the creation of a stable government, aided by US, its allies, and the United Nations toward reconstruction of the country, also be an important factor now that the door is nearing closure after the completion of its goal in Afghanistan? Conditions need to be provided so that millions of Afghans living in refuge all over the world may return to their ancestral home to lend a hand in the long and hard process of reconstruction and rehabilitation.

Afghanistan has lost everything in the last twenty years or more. It would take billions of dollars to recreate the destroyed infrastructure. Without help from outside, there is no way that any progress can be made in the next fifty years or more. But with help, especially by the elements that were responsible in causing the losses, it may be possible to bring about a semblance of progress in an atmosphere of peace and tranquility that will gradually bring the country around to the position that it was at before 1978. The Afghans seem to be looking to the US now more than at any time before.

With all the foregoing matter, there still is the final matter of the Taleban. The latter have left, most probably, all cities or are in the process of doing so. But they may continue to cause problems for the new government for some time. The Pakistani elements within the Taleban, may have already left the country, or should be found out and returned to where they came from. Osama is still the big question. Taleban claims about his whereabouts have usually been false in the past. They may be wrong again. If that is so, then the US aim has not been achieved. Will the US stay on until the end? What will its relations be with the government that will replace Taleban? These matters also need to have solutions found for them in the not too distant future.

11/17/2001